Why Most Real Estate Deals Don’t Actually Work on Paper
A data-backed breakdown of why 70%+ of deals fail basic underwriting once realistic costs are applied.
Why Most Real Estate Deals Don’t Actually Work on Paper
Most real estate deals look great in a text message.
They fall apart when real math shows up.
In real-world investor review pipelines, the majority of deals fail for three repeat reasons:
- ARV is too high
- Rehab is too low
- Holding + selling costs are ignored
Those aren’t “details.” Those are the variables that determine whether a deal is profitable or a slow-motion loss.
Why small ARV errors destroy big profits
A 5% ARV error on a $300,000 resale is:
- 0.05 × 300,000 = $15,000
Many flips target $25k–$40k gross profit.
So a modest 5% miss can erase 40–60% of margin.
ARV mistakes also compound because they influence:
- what you pay
- what you borrow
- how much you rehab
- how long you hold
- how you price at resale
A deal that “works” until you underwrite it
A common wholesale pitch:
- ARV: $325,000
- Asking: $215,000
- Rehab: $30,000
- “Should be $40k+ profit”
Now run conservative underwriting.
Step 1: ARV reality check
- Claimed ARV: $325,000
- Conservative ARV (tighter comps): $300,000
- Delta: -$25,000
Step 2: Rehab reality check
- Quoted rehab: $30,000
- Realistic rehab (labor + contingency): $45,000
- Delta: -$15,000
Step 3: Holding + selling costs (the hidden bucket)
A typical 6-month stack (varies by financing and market, but directionally consistent):
- Interest/carry: $8,000–$14,000
- Taxes + insurance: $2,000–$4,000
- Utilities/maintenance: $1,000–$2,000
- Selling costs (agent + closing): often 7–10% of resale
- On $300k resale: $21,000–$30,000
Even if you use conservative numbers, this bucket can be $18k–$28k.
The swing is the point
| Variable | Claimed | Conservative | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARV | $325,000 | $300,000 | -$25,000 |
| Rehab | $30,000 | $45,000 | -$15,000 |
| Holding + selling | $0 | $20,000 | -$20,000 |
| Total swing | -$60,000 |
The “$40k profit” deal becomes break-even or negative.
That’s not rare. That’s normal.
The real rule: if it only works with perfect execution, it doesn’t work
Professionals assume:
- contractor delays
- inspection surprises
- buyer concessions
- longer DOM
- softer retail demand
A practical stress test:
- ARV -5%
- Rehab +20%
- Timeline +60 days
If the deal breaks under that stress, it’s not a deal. It’s a hope.
What wholesalers can do to create closer deals
Wholesalers don’t need perfect underwriting.
They need defensible underwriting.
The wholesalers with repeat buyers:
- use closed comps
- disclose big-ticket risks (roof/HVAC/plumbing/electrical/foundation)
- include basic rehab assumptions by system
- price with a margin of safety
That’s how you reduce retrades.
What investors should do before saying yes
Minimum checklist:
- 3–6 closed comps (same micro-neighborhood if possible)
- confirm school district boundaries
- verify beds/baths/garage/lot size
- rehab scope by system + contingency
- holding cost estimate per month
- clear exit buyer profile at resale
Bottom line
The edge in real estate isn’t finding deals.
It’s refusing to lie to yourself in underwriting.
Strong deals survive bad luck. Weak deals require perfect execution.